The world of professional women’s basketball is filled with high stakes, intense competition, and fans with sky-high expectations. As the WNBA Draft looms each year, the anticipation of seeing which college stars will make the leap to the pros fuels passionate debates and heavy scrutiny. One of the most common discussions, particularly in the wake of any trade or pick, revolves around the value of draft picks — especially those that fall outside of the coveted
When it comes to the WNBA, there is an undeniable tendency for fans to hold their breath, hoping for the next Caitlin Clark or Sabrina Ionescu to emerge from the draft. These players, who make waves in college basketball with extraordinary performances, are often expected to immediately translate their success into the pro game. However, the harsh reality is that outside of the #1 pick, most players selected in the WNBA Draft take time to develop and contribute to their team’s success.
In this article, we’ll explore the complexities of draft picks beyond the #1 selection in women’s basketball, using the recent uproar from fans of the Indiana Fever as a case study. We will delve into the developmental curve of rookies, why most second-tier draft picks take several years to make an impact, and how expectations surrounding these players can be unrealistic in the face of the challenges of professional basketball.
The Fever and the 8th Pick: A Case Study
Fans of the Indiana Fever recently voiced their frustration over the team’s decision to trade away the 8th pick in the draft, a decision that some viewed as short-sighted. As the Fever are in a rebuilding phase, the expectation was that any draft pick, even one in the middle of the first round, could help them in the near future. However, what many fans failed to understand is that the 8th pick, in all likelihood, would not immediately contribute to the team’s success, no matter the player’s talent in college.
This is a pattern that plays out repeatedly in the WNBA — a league where the gap between college and professional play can be vast. Fans often get enamored by a player’s performance in college and assume that success will seamlessly carry over into the professional ranks. While there are exceptions, such as Caitlin Clark or Breanna Stewart, these players are outliers. For the majority of draft picks, especially those selected outside the top few spots, the reality is that they will face a steep learning curve in their transition to the WNBA.
Why Most WNBA Draft Picks Take Time to Develop
The WNBA is a highly competitive league, with players who have spent years honing their skills in the professional basketball world. For rookies, this means they are stepping into a system where they are competing against some of the best athletes in the world. Transitioning from college to the pros is a monumental jump, and the vast majority of players selected outside of the #1 pick aren’t ready to contribute to a team right away.
The reasons for this are manifold:
1. The Talent Gap Between College and the Pros
While college basketball can be incredibly competitive, the WNBA is a different beast entirely. The skill level, athleticism, and experience required to succeed at the professional level are on a different plane. In college, players can often dominate with their physicality and skillset in ways that won’t necessarily carry over to the pros. The WNBA is a league where the margins for error are slim, and players are expected to perform at an elite level from day one.
2. The Demands of Professional Play
Rookies entering the WNBA often struggle to adjust to the intense demands of professional basketball. This includes longer seasons, more games, more travel, and a higher level of physicality. The learning curve is steep, and many rookies find themselves overwhelmed by the demands of both on-court performance and off-court responsibilities. The WNBA is also a league where teams expect immediate contributions in terms of leadership, basketball IQ, and teamwork, which may not come naturally to younger or less experienced players.
3. Position and Physical Limitations
Another factor to consider is the player’s position. In the WNBA, height, strength, and agility all play crucial roles in a player’s ability to compete. Guards who are under 6 feet tall, for example, may struggle to assert themselves in a league where the average height is taller and the level of physicality is higher. While a guard in college may have been able to rely on speed and agility to outmaneuver opponents, that might not be enough in the WNBA, where defenders are stronger and the game is faster.
4. Coaching Systems and Fit
The coaching system and team dynamic also play a significant role in a player’s development. A player might come into the league with immense potential but find that their skills don’t immediately fit the system or the team they’ve been drafted into. In some cases, it can take years for a player to fully adapt to their role on the team, and some players simply don’t mesh well with the team culture or coaching style.
5. Psychological Adjustment
Lastly, there is the psychological aspect of transitioning to the WNBA. For many rookies, it can be a difficult adjustment mentally to go from being a star in college to a newcomer trying to earn their spot. The pressure to perform, compounded by the lack of experience, can often result in a lack of confidence or the inability to showcase a player’s full potential early on.
The Reality of Draft Picks: The #1 Pick vs. Everyone Else
When people talk about the WNBA draft, the #1 pick often gets all the attention. And for good reason — historically, #1 picks like Sabrina Ionescu, A’ja Wilson, and Breanna Stewart have made an immediate impact in the league. However, this is far from the norm.
For most players, the transition to the pros is a gradual process. There is a reason why the vast majority of WNBA rookies don’t contribute significantly to their teams right away, especially if they aren’t drafted first overall. It is important to recognize that the vast majority of players selected outside the top few spots are not expected to become superstars in their first or even second seasons. This is especially true for players who are not immediately physically dominant, such as those under 6 feet 3 inches tall or those who have more raw talent but lack the refined skills needed at the professional level.
Consider Nalyssa Smith, the #2 overall pick in the 2022 WNBA Draft. Despite her immense potential, Smith has yet to make a significant impact on the Fever’s success. While she may have shown flashes of brilliance, her ability to consistently contribute to winning has been limited. This is not to say that Smith will not become a key player in the future — but the point is that her current development trajectory is consistent with the typical curve for players selected in the early-to-mid first round.
Smith’s situation highlights an important truth about WNBA draft picks: even those who are highly regarded and picked early in the draft need time to adjust, develop, and contribute in a meaningful way. It can take years for a player to fully find their role, refine their skills, and become a difference-maker on the court.
Why Fans Need to Temper Expectations
Fans often have unrealistic expectations when it comes to draft picks. The allure of college basketball stars who have been performing at an elite level can cloud their judgment, leading them to believe that these players will seamlessly transition into the professional ranks and make an immediate impact. However, the reality is that success in college basketball does not automatically translate to success in the WNBA.
The myth of instant impact needs to be debunked. There are countless examples of players who were drafted highly but needed several years to find their footing in the league. The likes of Nalyssa Smith, Teaira McCowan, and others are reminders that even high picks don’t guarantee immediate success. While there are exceptions, they are rare.
Conclusion: Patience is Key for Drafted Players
While fans may be disappointed when their team trades away a valuable draft pick or selects a player who may not immediately make a difference, the truth is that these players still need time to grow and adjust. Rookies, especially those drafted outside of the #1 spot, will take time — sometimes years — to develop into key contributors at the professional level.
It is essential for fans to manage their expectations and understand that the WNBA is a league where patience and development are key. Teams like the Indiana Fever may face a challenging few years, but with the right developmental plans and support, they can turn their draft picks into future stars. Until then, it’s important to remember that the transition from college to the pros is a long journey, and players deserve time to grow into their roles.
In the end, the WNBA draft is a complex and nuanced process. Draft picks, especially those outside the top 3, require a significant amount of time and patience to reach their full potential. As fans, it’s important to give these players the time and support they need to succeed. After all, basketball is a game of development, not instant gratification.